A new Afrobarometer survey has revealed a startling shift in South African public opinion: nearly half of South Africans now say they would support military rule, reflecting a dramatic erosion of faith in democratic institutions three decades after the country’s transition from apartheid.
The findings expose an uncomfortable truth — South Africa is no longer an outlier on a continent where citizens, particularly young people, are increasingly sceptical of electoral politics and more willing to consider military intervention as an alternative to governance that they perceive as corrupt, ineffective or unresponsive.
According to the Afrobarometer report, only a minority of South Africans now show strong support for democracy, while support for military rule has climbed to levels unseen since the survey began collecting data in the country.
This shift is driven largely by dissatisfaction with the quality of democracy, rather than the concept itself. Chronic unemployment, persistent inequality, violent crime, corruption scandals and deteriorating service delivery have steadily chipped away at public trust.
For many citizens, elections have not translated into improved governance or material well-being, and the democratic system appears increasingly unable to hold leaders accountable. The survey found that large majorities believe the country is headed in the wrong direction, a sentiment even more pronounced among younger South Africans.
While the results may alarm those who see South Africa as one of Africa’s strongest constitutional democracies, they mirror a broader continental trend.
Across 39 African countries surveyed, 53% of Africans said they would accept a military takeover if elected leaders abuse power. This is despite the fact that Africa has experienced a wave of coups successful and attempted since 2020, from the Sahel to West Africa, Central Africa and beyond.
Military juntas in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have capitalised on widespread disillusionment with civilian governments to justify interventions. Similar frustrations underpin rising nostalgia for “strongman politics” in countries like Uganda, Kenya, Zambia and Ghana, where citizens report declining satisfaction with democracy even when they do not explicitly call for military rule.
Afrobarometer data underscores that these attitudes correlate strongly with the failure of democratic institutions to deliver security, jobs, and accountability. South Africa, despite its relatively advanced economy and institutions, is no exception.
One of the most concerning aspects of the Afrobarometer findings is the generational shift.
Young Africans and young South Africans in particular are significantly more open to alternatives to electoral democracy. This reflects a cohort that has grown up in the democratic era but has known mostly unemployment, widening inequality, and political scandals.
In South Africa, the youth unemployment rate remains among the highest in the world. Many young people have little memory of the struggle for democracy, and even less evidence that it is working for them. Afrobarometer research shows that younger voters display weaker attachment to democracy and are more likely to support non-democratic alternatives if these promise stability or improved livelihoods.
Unless democratic leaders deliver tangible results, Afrobarometer’s findings may signal not a temporary backlash, but the beginning of a long-term disengagement from democracy, with far-reaching consequences for South Africa and the continent.
As Afrobarometer’s data continues to reveal, Africa is entering a transitional period in which democratic norms cannot be taken for granted. South Africa’s rising support for military rule illustrates that even the continent’s most celebrated democracies are vulnerable.
